A trough, in economic terms, can refer to a stage in the business cycle where activity is bottoming, or where prices are bottoming, before a rise.

There’s an old joke in economics that stock markets have predicted nine out of the past five recessions. The point being that predicting a recession solely based on the stock market is difficult.

“Bad losses in bad times.” That’s what author and investment advisor William Bernstein believes is a key risk for investors: the prospect of having to draw on their investment portfolios due to job ...

There are all kinds of people online spotting informal recession indicators. Planet Money takes some of those to see how they compare to the indicators economists watch. A quick spin around social ...

Why is Southern California a hotbed for certain types of business ventures? The unique combination of climate, culture, people, and several other factors makes the area nearly recession-proof for ...

After pausing for nine months, the U.S. Federal Reserve resumed cutting interest rates on 17 September 2025. The recession forecasting method we've used to monitor the odds of a recession starting in ...