Download PDF More Formats on IMF eLibrary Order a Print Copy Create Citation This paper extends the multivariate filter approach of estimating potential output developed by Alichi and others (2018) to ...

Potential output—the maximum amount an economy can produce over the long run—is an important indicator policymakers use to gauge a country’s current economic health and expectations for future growth.

The output gap measures how far the economy is from its full employment or “potential” level that depends on supply-side factors of the economy: the supply of workers and their productivity. During a ...

This paper develops a simple model for measuring potential output that uses data on inflation, unemployment, and capacity utilization. We apply the model to 10 countries, in addition to the United ...

Simply sign up to the Global Economy myFT Digest -- delivered directly to your inbox. Towards the end of 2000, at the peak of America’s irrational exuberance, staff economists at the Federal Reserve ...

This paper studies the negative loop caused by the interaction between pessimistic estimates of potential output and the effects of fiscal policy in Europe during 2008–2014. We argue that policymakers ...

Discussions about the state of the economy tend to focus much more on the monthly wiggles in the data, the Fed’s latest program to stimulate spending, and the drama on Capitol Hill than on the ...